Global Oil Supply Growth Holds at 0.6 mb/d as DoC Output Falls in January
In Numbers:
• +0.6 million barrels per day (mb/d) non-DoC supply growth projected for 2026
• +0.6 mb/d projected again for 2027
• –439,000 barrels per day (tb/d) month-on-month drop in DoC crude production (January)
What Changed:
Non-DoC supply growth remains unchanged at +0.6 mb/d for 2026, with the same pace projected into 2027, indicating steady but limited expansion. Growth continues to be concentrated in a handful of producers, including the United States and Brazil. Meanwhile, DoC crude production declined by 439 tb/d in January compared to the previous month. In simple terms, new supply is increasing, but gradually, and recent monthly output has dipped.
Why It Matters:
When supply rises by 0.6 mb/d while global demand is growing by more than 1 mb/d annually, the market can tighten if other adjustments are not made. Slower supply growth makes prices more sensitive to disruptions, policy decisions, or unexpected outages.
Why Africa Should Care:
For exporters such as Nigeria, Angola, and Libya, moderate global supply growth supports continued market relevance and revenue stability. For oil-importing African economies, limited supply expansion relative to demand means continued exposure to international price volatility. The data reinforces the importance of production stability for exporters and prudent fiscal planning for import-dependent states.
